The West Unwilling to Negotiate

IRD: Last Tuesday, the Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, responded to Catherine Ashton’s February letter concerning the Iran-P5+1 negotiations, welcoming “pressure-free” talks. On Wednesday, Maja Kocijancic, spokeswoman for EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, snubbed Jalili’s response by stating that Jalili’s letter “contains nothing new.” The last round of negotiations between Iran and world powers held in January in Istanbul, Turkey, were disappointing for both sides, as Jalili and Ashton were no shows at the supposed press conference after the talks. In an attempt, perhaps, to keep the negotiation option open, Ashton had sent her negotiating counterpart a letter on behalf of the six global powers in early February, supporting resumption of talks without preconditions.

The dialogue in Istanbul did not bring for the West what it was looking for. And it doesn’t seem that the West is eager to achieve its goals through negotiations at the moment. Apparently, it assumes that it now has the upper hand with respect to Iran in the nuclear standoff. Three main developments may have encouraged Western countries to step back from talking to Iran for now:

Iran’s nuclear program seems to have decelerated. The cause could be the impact of both/either the UN-set international sanctions (cemented by unilateral US and EU sanctions) which are troubling Iran and/or damage caused by the Stuxnet virus to nuclear centrifuges in Bushehr. Stated differently, a nuclear- devitalized Iran has shrunk the West’s eagerness to resume talks.

The recent developments in Middle East and North Africa have human rights and democracy at the core of their dynamics. Concurrent with these developments, pressure on Iran over human rights issues has heightened. The new composition of the UN Human Rights Council is not fond of Iran, as appointment of a new rapporteur for Iran can attest. In the meantime, the European Union has also set a travel ban on 32 Iranian officials to the Euro zone on charges of human rights abuses. Further sanctions against Iranian officials may be in the pipeline.

The West also assumes that regional developments may not be in favor of Iran. Tehran’s long-time strategic ally, Syria, is weathering stormy days. Unrest persists in various cities despite a violent crackdown, while the international community is pressing Damascus to open up its political atmosphere. In Palestine, Hamas’ deal with Fatah has been interpreted as a sign of Iran’s weakening influence on Hamas. Moreover, tension with Arab states on the southern coast of the Persian Gulf is also at its height, undoubtedly the worst in the recent years.

Despite the situation, Jalili’s letter to Ashton did not signal any sense of weakness on the Iranian side, as it expressed pleasure with the West’s decision to return to the negotiating table, calling for “avoidance of pressure” and “respect for nations’ rights”, and boasting Iran’s apt prediction of developments in its 2008 package of proposals.

* Ali Khorram is former nuclear negotiator and Iran’s former ambassador to China.