The Syrian Crisis and Confusion

IRD: The recent developments in Syria have surely been the most difficult internal crisis yet facing Bashar Assad. These developments were not only surprising to Assad and the ruling government, but also to governments in the region, including Syria’s allies. This is due to the important role Syria plays in regional issues, including the Palestinians, the Resistance, peace talks, Iraq and others.

Syria was always considered an element of stability in the region and was taken into account for this role by regional and international players. There are many cases to prove this. Therefore, part of the confusion with regard to Syria’s problems is normal.

But we should remember that the developments in Syria are the continuation of those which began in North Africa, and finally spread to Syria as well.

These developments are a serious threat to Syria, since the half-century of internal repression, one-party system, and the accumulation of popular demands have created a fragile situation for the government. Especially now that based on recent news many people have been killed in the unrest, which only makes the situation more complicated.

But on the other hand, the situation in Syria should not cause Assad to face the same fate as Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi, because the role this country plays in the region based on the concept of resistance is very influential. Even if we accept the theory of foreign intervention in the Syrian crisis, as some propose, the Syrian government must reconsider its attitude toward its people to defeat the conspiracy of foreign actors. Syria should seriously refrain from traditional methods of suppression, of the likes of what Saddam did to the Iraqis or what Gaddafi is doing to the Libyans. This fact has its own price too.

Bashar Assad has announced some reforms in the internal conditions of Syria, which itself indicates the seriousness of this crisis. But the continuation of protests and rising death toll shows that the crisis has deep roots and the reforms have not been effective. In addition, the prolongation of the crisis has provided the opportunity for the opponents of Assad to organize themselves, therefore further complicating the situation. 

At any rate, it seems that the current situation in Syria has only two solutions; one of which is the option of serious reforms, a closer communication by the system with the people, reducing the distance from and attracting the trust of the people, and the other option being the continuation of repression and the use of military power, which will increase the discontent of the people. Of course the future of the second option is clear to everyone.

In regards to the reaction of the Iranian government to the developments in Syria, it has to be said that before these developments other uprisings in North Africa, especially in Egypt and Tunisia and later in Yemen and Bahrain, were supported by Iran. However, after the Syrian people entered the equation, it seems that they distorted the equation for Iran.

In addition to the mutual strategic relation of Syria with Iran, it is also considered the entrance gate for Iran to the Arab world. Iran considers the role of Syria in Lebanon, with Hezbollah, and with the Palestinian axis in regional equations. The developments in Syria can influence this entire axis and can reduce the power of political maneuvers in these axes.

One of these axes that has faced some confusion with regards to Syria is Hamas. On the occasion of Mubarak’s fall, Hamas was happy and ridiculed Mahmud Abbas for backing him. But now with their full support for the Syrian government they have become just like the acting Palestinian government. The paradox is because the popular body of Hamas is related to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is in conflict with Asaad. But from a political perspective, they have to support Assad. Therefore, Hamas is currently going through a lot of confusion.

However, it is said that Khaled Mashaal has tried to reduce the differences between the Muslim Brotherhood and Syria, but his attempts have failed. There are other rumors indicating that Hamas has other alternatives for stabilizing its situation. But the Hamas movement has denied these rumors. One of these rumors is the transfer of Hamas’s office. But it seems that one of the reasons behind the negotiations between Hamas and the acting Palestinian government is the developments in Syria, which have caused Hamas officials to conclude reestablishing their relations with Egypt. Therefore, we should not neglect the relation between the internal affairs of Palestine and the internal conflicts of Syria.

The complexity in the Syrian situation has caused us to face confusion in our official position with regards this issue. The recent flexibility which resulted in giving some advice to Bashar Assad is caused by these complexities. Iran’s recent position with regards to seriously considering the demands of the Syrian people- otherwise facing threats and causing threats for the Resistance- seem necessary and should be on the agenda of relevant institutions in the country.