Bin Laden’s likely successor is a divisive figure

U.S. counterterrorism officials and analysts said they expected that Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian surgeon and bin Laden’s longtime deputy, would take over as al-Qaeda’s emir, or paramount leader. But they added that his ascendance was not guaranteed, pointing to a statement released Friday by al-Qaeda’s “general command” that acknowledged bin Laden’s demise but gave no hint of who was in charge.

“Zawahiri is obviously the presumed successor, but there are strong indications that he is not popular within certain circles of the group,” a senior U.S. intelligence official told reporters Saturday in a briefing at the Pentagon. “It is, of course, anathema to al-Qaeda to hold free and fair elections. If free and fair elections [were conducted], Zawahiri would most likely have a fight on his hands.”

Another U.S. official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments, noted that while many al-Qaeda sub-commanders have been killed in recent years, there are alternatives to Zawahiri.

Among them are two veteran Libyan jihadis, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman and Abu Yahya al-Libi. “Atiyah or Abu Yahya are rumored to be more personable than Zawahiri and have certainly earned their operational chops,” the official said.

Al-Qaeda’s central organization is formally governed by a shura, or leadership council. Most of its members had sworn an oath to serve under bin Laden. It remains to be seen whether Zawahiri or his rivals will be able to command the same loyalty.

U.S. officials are hoping that the trail that led them to bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, will also take them to Zawahiri, who has been al-Qaeda’s operational commander for years. Over the past week, the CIA has been trying to exploit an intelligence windfall of materials collected from bin Laden’s compound, including possible information on the whereabouts of other al-Qaeda figures. U.S. officials briefed on the effort have hinted that Zawahiri is among those being pursued aggressively, and the chairman of the House intelligence committee said last week that he believed “we’re hot on the trail.” Continued…