Theocracy Is History
Tunisia turned upside down the conventional dynamism of protests: this time, it was the masses that compelled the political opposition, the ruling elite and influential foreign actors to take action. It seems that Egypt has patterned itself on Tunisia, though unlike its western neighbor, Egypt has always had a vibrant political opposition.
The masses have drawn the political opposition into the street. However, this does not negate the potential influence of the opposition on the popular anti-regime demonstrations in these countries. In both Tunisia and Egypt (and other candidates for public protests), Islamist groups have been trying to leave their mark on the demonstrations and direct them in a way that maximally realizes their historical demands. In Egypt, this desire is more conspicuous. The Muslim Brotherhood is perhaps the oldest Islamist movement in the entire Muslim world. It enjoys an efficient organization and its roots runs deep inside Egyptian society, from the intellectual and the elite, to trade unions and NGOs. The Brotherhood will naturally make efforts to take control of the popular wave of anger against Mubarak’s regime and deepen and widen the political tsunami.
Even a minimal structural change in Egypt and Tunisia, one that creates room for participation of the masses and the non-governmental elite in state affairs, will pave the way for a stronger presence of Islamist movements in politics. This does not equate with the establishment of an Islamic regime in these countries, at least in middle- and short-term, as such a thing would face fierce opposition. In the case of Egypt, in particular, Tel Aviv’s grave concerns and the Muslim Brotherhood’s staunch support for the anti-Israel resistance will foil any effort that leads to an Islamist party’s domination over Egyptian politics.
On the other hand, faith is not the only concern of Tunisians and Egyptians. A better state of the economy, politics, diplomacy and especially a revival of the violated dignity of the Arabs is the key aim of the opposition and the masses. This basic demand besides the lack of a powerful, revolutionary leader who would be able to gather all opposition groups under one umbrella (similar to Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran’s Islamic Revolution), Western countries’ efforts, and the ruling elite’s resistance, reduces the probability of dominance by an Islamist group. However, as the gap between the nation and the state becomes wider in Tunisia and Egypt and citizens, the elite, and opposition parties find an opportunity to participate effectively, the Islamist groups can turn into key actors in future politics due to their deep-seated influence in the society.
Historically, the Muslim Brotherhood was a movement established to carry out change in Egypt and the Arab World. In other words, the ultimate goal of founding the movement was to form theocracies across the region, unite them, and finally shape them into an Islamic Ummah. Nevertheless, under the historical developments of recent decades and a set of factors, including the diversity of powerful social actors, an iron-fist approach and total repression of Islamist movements by the establishment, the serious concern of influential Western powers (aggravated after the victory of the Islamic Revolution and the formation of Islamist groups in Palestine and Lebanon) and their challenges to these groups, have led to a revision of political discourse among them.