A Resolution by IAEA Is a Resolution by UNSC
By Dr. Mahdi Mohtashami, analyst in Institute for Political and International Studies
As IAEA turns more radical in its treatment of Iran’s nuclear program, the situation appears more and more prepared for Board of Governors to act against Iran once again. Despite the statements released by Non-Aligned Movement members of the board and their efforts to turn the balance in favor of Iran, little has been achieved so far. Composition of the board –veto-wielding members of United Nations is key actors in this policy-making body- results in a different outcome.
Yukia Amano’s recent report was substantially different from those we expected to see from Mohammad ElBaradei. Ambiguities in Iran’s nuclear activities and the necessity for verification were more explicitly addressed in the report prepared by IAEA this time.
Board of Governors’ four-day meeting will be another stage in efforts to refer Iran’s case to UN Security Council. No one should be surprised if UN Security Council passed another resolution against Iran’s nuclear program.
We are not aware of the backstage developments however. As Iran’s envoy to IAEA has sent Amano a letter, we should wait to see whether or not Iran insists on its current stance. If Iran puts its foot down, another Board of Governors’ resolution based on Amano’s 29-page report wouldn’t come as a surprise.
The prospect is not so bright. And to make things more complicated, personality has now become an issue with the new head of International Atomic Energy Organization. The quality of ElBaradei’s relations with Tehran cannot be achieved with Amano. Plus, the new IAEA chief comes from a country (Yukia Amano is Japanese) that follows a pro-West policy and is a close ally of the United States. I’m not sure if Ali Larijani’s visit to Japan could affect the course of nuclear developments. Amano may be Japanese, but he is not under the influence of Japanese politicians.
At this point, our diplomatic apparatus should play a clever game to forestall another report by Board of Governors’ which is highly likely to turn into another UNSC resolution against Iran’s nuclear program in March. Tehran should find the effective way to mitigate the tone of Board of Governors’ report.
Yukia Amano’s recent report was substantially different from those we expected to see from Mohammad ElBaradei. Ambiguities in Iran’s nuclear activities and the necessity for verification were more explicitly addressed in the report prepared by IAEA this time.
Board of Governors’ four-day meeting will be another stage in efforts to refer Iran’s case to UN Security Council. No one should be surprised if UN Security Council passed another resolution against Iran’s nuclear program.
We are not aware of the backstage developments however. As Iran’s envoy to IAEA has sent Amano a letter, we should wait to see whether or not Iran insists on its current stance. If Iran puts its foot down, another Board of Governors’ resolution based on Amano’s 29-page report wouldn’t come as a surprise.
The prospect is not so bright. And to make things more complicated, personality has now become an issue with the new head of International Atomic Energy Organization. The quality of ElBaradei’s relations with Tehran cannot be achieved with Amano. Plus, the new IAEA chief comes from a country (Yukia Amano is Japanese) that follows a pro-West policy and is a close ally of the United States. I’m not sure if Ali Larijani’s visit to Japan could affect the course of nuclear developments. Amano may be Japanese, but he is not under the influence of Japanese politicians.
At this point, our diplomatic apparatus should play a clever game to forestall another report by Board of Governors’ which is highly likely to turn into another UNSC resolution against Iran’s nuclear program in March. Tehran should find the effective way to mitigate the tone of Board of Governors’ report.