Israel’s Efforts Will Remain Ineffective
By Amir Musavi, strategc affairs analyst
Israel’s anti-Iran campaign has started long before the UN Security Council initiated the release of resolutions against Iran. However, Israel’s efforts to demonize Iran and promote confrontation as the primary option will remain ineffective. The propaganda may attract the attention of Europeans, but it will fail in gaining the consent of China and Russia.
For China and Russia will remain committed to supporting Iran as their key Middle East partner. However, they keep on their efforts convincing Iran to cooperate with the international community. As long as this is the situation, Israel’s efforts will remain at the level of propaganda, without any effective outputs.
Russia and China may nod to further sanctions against Iran, but the sanctions will not be as stringent as expected. Gasoline embargo will most likely remain unactualized due to the opposition of China and Russia. Fiscal sanctions will have little effect since few Iranian statesmen and organizations have bank accounts in other countries.
However, Iran can completely neutralize pressures if inside the country, the post-election rift between political camps is ended and solidarity is revived.Otherwise, foreign powers may become greedy and impose tougher sanctions.
For France, UK and the United States further sanctions are the favorite option, but Russia and China’s opposition stops them from any action. Even with the latters’ consent, new sanctions will be weak and mostly nominal. Since the start of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear progam, US and Israel have strived to unite the international community against Iran, especially over santons. If such unanimity as achieved, Americans can claim that the world is againt Iran’s nuclear program. However, inclusive sanctions are not likely.
The most effective sanction against Iran relates to embargo on gasoline purchase, oil export or sattelite communication. Other sanctions will not harm. Ironically, sanctions on oil products or communication will largely harm Iranian people, whom Western powers claim to care for.
For China and Russia will remain committed to supporting Iran as their key Middle East partner. However, they keep on their efforts convincing Iran to cooperate with the international community. As long as this is the situation, Israel’s efforts will remain at the level of propaganda, without any effective outputs.
Russia and China may nod to further sanctions against Iran, but the sanctions will not be as stringent as expected. Gasoline embargo will most likely remain unactualized due to the opposition of China and Russia. Fiscal sanctions will have little effect since few Iranian statesmen and organizations have bank accounts in other countries.
However, Iran can completely neutralize pressures if inside the country, the post-election rift between political camps is ended and solidarity is revived.Otherwise, foreign powers may become greedy and impose tougher sanctions.
For France, UK and the United States further sanctions are the favorite option, but Russia and China’s opposition stops them from any action. Even with the latters’ consent, new sanctions will be weak and mostly nominal. Since the start of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear progam, US and Israel have strived to unite the international community against Iran, especially over santons. If such unanimity as achieved, Americans can claim that the world is againt Iran’s nuclear program. However, inclusive sanctions are not likely.
The most effective sanction against Iran relates to embargo on gasoline purchase, oil export or sattelite communication. Other sanctions will not harm. Ironically, sanctions on oil products or communication will largely harm Iranian people, whom Western powers claim to care for.