Negotiating the Rope

21 September 2009 | 04:36 Code : 5739 Europe

So how are Russians playing in Iran’s nuclear game? By Bahram Amir Ahmadian

On September 15^th Russian President Dmitri Medvedev stated that sanctions against Iran are not still off the agenda. "Sanctions are not very effective on the whole, but sometimes you have to embark on sanctions and they can be right" said the Russian president in Moscow. Russian affairs analyst Bahram Amir Ahmadian has commented on Kremlin’s role in Iran’s nuclear program:

It was Russia’s real stance on Iran’s nuclear program manifested in Medvedev’s words. Diplomatic words may not be that transparent sometimes, but when uttered by a president they become the official stance of the state. Moscow has frequently pointed out that it would not want a nuclear Iran on its southern borders. Neither has it vetoed any of the anti-Iranian resolutions of UN Security Council. Expecting Moscow to take measures in defense of Iran’s nuclear program is just naïve.

Medvedev’s remark that Moscow would act "openly and in a responsible manner" in solving the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program is another evidence that Russians behave according to the overall international mood and their own interests. Russia has always been an adroit ropewalker in Iran’s nuclear case. We should be cautious in dealing with this country.

October Negotiations and Russia’s Stance

Predicting Russia’s stance in the upcoming negotiation between Iran and Five plus One is not so easy. On the one hand Kremlin advocates for a closer study of Iran’s recent proposal package, on the other hand, more time is needed to give a final opinion on the package it believes. Russia seems to be trying to get a taste of what other global powers think of Iran’s package in the October talks before taking an official stance.

The ultimate goal of Five plus One –except Russia and China who oppose further sanctions- is to force Iran stop uranium enrichment process. Unlike previous occasions, United States is not asking for enrichment freeze as a precondition to talks. West is asking Iran for greater transparency, while the procedure of negotiations has witnessed significant changes. However, Iran views its nuclear dossier and uranium enrichment as a finished story and tends to talk on other global concerns, with a new discourse, a new package.

Sanctions and Russia

Russia will abide by sanctions if it comes under pressure by international institutions such as IAEA and UN Security Council. The good side of Moscow’s stance is its endorsement of diplomatic measures and insistence on inefficiency of sanctions. Aware of Iran’s regional potential, Russia is apt to continue constructive relations with our country. It may not want to undermine warm relations through cooperation with other Five plus One members. In other words, Moscow does its best to shield its ties with Iran from tensions.