Nothing Has Changed
Interview with Mohammad Irani, Iran’s former ambassador to Lebanon, on the outcome of parliamentary elections in Lebanon.
Mr. Irani, tell us what happened in Lebanon? Why did Hezbollah and 8th of March lose the elections?
Before we start, let us have a look at Lebanon’s unique electoral system. The system is meant establish equilibrium between sects which determine political developments. More important, the dominant sect can not ignore others. So victory for one side does not mean that it has extended power over all the political system.
Hezbollah and the 8th of March movement predicted to be the winners of the parliamentary elections. Why were they defeated?
For several reasons. If you look at the sectarian geography of Lebanon, you observe that no remarkable changes have occurred. The law is such that each sect has a fixed share of parliament seats. So what is important is that on political group attracts the support of these sects to form the majority. The situation is that both minority and majority comprise members of all religious and ethnic groups.
One cause of the current results is the massive turnout of Christians and Sunnis in the elections. While in the previous elections 46.5 percent of Lebanese citizens cast their vote, in these elections that percentage became %55. Even a seventy-percent participation was recorded in some Christian-dominated areas.
And the other causes?
The atmosphere has become quite political during the past 3-4 years in Lebanon and all sects tried to define their role in these circumstances. Michel Aoun’s return to Lebanon and conflicts inside Christian groups kept the stage hot and motivated them to take part in the elections. Another important cause was the participation of Lebanese expatriates, who are mainly Christians. A campaign was launched to return them to the country for voting. According to the electoral regulations, Lebanese can only vote in their birthplace. So we say that an elected candidate from south Lebanon entered the parliament with 250 thousand votes while a Christian candidate entered the legislative with 200, 500 or 700 votes. This is another feature Lebanon’s electoral system which affected the course of elections.
Interventions by foreign countries also had an impact on the elections. Americans were concerned about the result of polls, as Joe Biden’s visit showed. Israelis were also eying the elections. And Arab countries have their concerns. Saudi Arabia had heavily invested on these elections and Sunni leader Saad Hariri spent as much as he could for the elections. Christians and Sunnis are among the wealthiest in Lebanon and are ready to spend millions of dollars to control the parliament.
However, if we compare the situation with 10 or 15 years ago, when Resistance had no representatives in power, the situation is really promising. The majority can not deny them anymore, since they comprise at least fifty percent of the Lebanese political power.
Both 8th of March and 14th of March include Christian, Sunni, Shiite and Druze figures. So many believed that 8th of March could gain power this time. Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah also thought so. So why didn’t this happen?
I told you the causes. All those major figures of Lebanon who really care for their country believe that national unity is the fundament of politics in this country. The majority can not impose its will on the minority since it will lead to a serious challenge. That is why I believe that no remarkable change is going to occur in the realm of politics. Lebanon is forced to adhere to national unity and political balance.
How do you see Mr. Mottaki’s visit to Paris? Some Arab newspapers had claimed that Iran and France have made a deal over the parliamentary elections in Lebanon.
We have always acted inside a clear framework when it comes to our cooperation with France over Lebanon. Both countries have wanted stability for Lebanon. I do not believe in any sort of trade-off between Iran and France. Even during the Taif agreement and Israel’s attack on Lebanon in 1996 we made agreements with France.
Ahmadinejad’s administration has faced tough criticisms over its foreign diplomacy. Some believe that the results of parliamentary elections are another negative point in his record. Of course our relations with Hezbollah have never depended on a certain administration. However, Lebanon is Iran’s traditional sphere of influence and Hezbollah’s defeat is regarded as Ahmadinejad’s defeat by some. What is your opinion?
I’m not going to talk about Iran’s domestic issues, but our relations with Lebanon and the Resistance are strategic, regardless of whatever government that comes to power in Iran. I am not sure if we can make any conclusions about the domestic politics by analyzing foreign policies. Whatever the government in Iran, our relations with Hezbollah will follow a certain line.
Iran and Syria have lined against Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries in Lebanon’s political sphere during the recent years. Can these elections give the impression that Saudi Arabia has outperformed Iran?
I look from this perspective that no group has significantly lost seats in the parliaments. What is more important nowadays is talks around the possibility of formation of a third group, including moderates of both 8th of March and 14th of March, who believe that the current trend can not solve any problems. This may have a substantial impact on the future of politics inside Lebanon.
And it is true that some Arab states are intervening in Lebanon’s affairs. But their efforts have not undermined the Resistance and Iran. Evidence is the coalition between Amal and Hezbollah in south Lebanon which increased Shiites’ participation in the elections. The only possible development is a rapprochement between Syria and other Arab states.
Before we start, let us have a look at Lebanon’s unique electoral system. The system is meant establish equilibrium between sects which determine political developments. More important, the dominant sect can not ignore others. So victory for one side does not mean that it has extended power over all the political system.
Hezbollah and the 8th of March movement predicted to be the winners of the parliamentary elections. Why were they defeated?
For several reasons. If you look at the sectarian geography of Lebanon, you observe that no remarkable changes have occurred. The law is such that each sect has a fixed share of parliament seats. So what is important is that on political group attracts the support of these sects to form the majority. The situation is that both minority and majority comprise members of all religious and ethnic groups.
One cause of the current results is the massive turnout of Christians and Sunnis in the elections. While in the previous elections 46.5 percent of Lebanese citizens cast their vote, in these elections that percentage became %55. Even a seventy-percent participation was recorded in some Christian-dominated areas.
And the other causes?
The atmosphere has become quite political during the past 3-4 years in Lebanon and all sects tried to define their role in these circumstances. Michel Aoun’s return to Lebanon and conflicts inside Christian groups kept the stage hot and motivated them to take part in the elections. Another important cause was the participation of Lebanese expatriates, who are mainly Christians. A campaign was launched to return them to the country for voting. According to the electoral regulations, Lebanese can only vote in their birthplace. So we say that an elected candidate from south Lebanon entered the parliament with 250 thousand votes while a Christian candidate entered the legislative with 200, 500 or 700 votes. This is another feature Lebanon’s electoral system which affected the course of elections.
Interventions by foreign countries also had an impact on the elections. Americans were concerned about the result of polls, as Joe Biden’s visit showed. Israelis were also eying the elections. And Arab countries have their concerns. Saudi Arabia had heavily invested on these elections and Sunni leader Saad Hariri spent as much as he could for the elections. Christians and Sunnis are among the wealthiest in Lebanon and are ready to spend millions of dollars to control the parliament.
However, if we compare the situation with 10 or 15 years ago, when Resistance had no representatives in power, the situation is really promising. The majority can not deny them anymore, since they comprise at least fifty percent of the Lebanese political power.
Both 8th of March and 14th of March include Christian, Sunni, Shiite and Druze figures. So many believed that 8th of March could gain power this time. Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah also thought so. So why didn’t this happen?
I told you the causes. All those major figures of Lebanon who really care for their country believe that national unity is the fundament of politics in this country. The majority can not impose its will on the minority since it will lead to a serious challenge. That is why I believe that no remarkable change is going to occur in the realm of politics. Lebanon is forced to adhere to national unity and political balance.
How do you see Mr. Mottaki’s visit to Paris? Some Arab newspapers had claimed that Iran and France have made a deal over the parliamentary elections in Lebanon.
We have always acted inside a clear framework when it comes to our cooperation with France over Lebanon. Both countries have wanted stability for Lebanon. I do not believe in any sort of trade-off between Iran and France. Even during the Taif agreement and Israel’s attack on Lebanon in 1996 we made agreements with France.
Ahmadinejad’s administration has faced tough criticisms over its foreign diplomacy. Some believe that the results of parliamentary elections are another negative point in his record. Of course our relations with Hezbollah have never depended on a certain administration. However, Lebanon is Iran’s traditional sphere of influence and Hezbollah’s defeat is regarded as Ahmadinejad’s defeat by some. What is your opinion?
I’m not going to talk about Iran’s domestic issues, but our relations with Lebanon and the Resistance are strategic, regardless of whatever government that comes to power in Iran. I am not sure if we can make any conclusions about the domestic politics by analyzing foreign policies. Whatever the government in Iran, our relations with Hezbollah will follow a certain line.
Iran and Syria have lined against Saudi Arabia and some other Arab countries in Lebanon’s political sphere during the recent years. Can these elections give the impression that Saudi Arabia has outperformed Iran?
I look from this perspective that no group has significantly lost seats in the parliaments. What is more important nowadays is talks around the possibility of formation of a third group, including moderates of both 8th of March and 14th of March, who believe that the current trend can not solve any problems. This may have a substantial impact on the future of politics inside Lebanon.
And it is true that some Arab states are intervening in Lebanon’s affairs. But their efforts have not undermined the Resistance and Iran. Evidence is the coalition between Amal and Hezbollah in south Lebanon which increased Shiites’ participation in the elections. The only possible development is a rapprochement between Syria and other Arab states.