Fabricated Figures
Economy expert believes that Ahmadinejad is playing with economic statistics. Interview with Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, Deputy Finance Minister of Khatami’s government.
While in his debates Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeats that Iran’s inflation rate is fifteen percent, the Central Bank of Iran reports the rate 23.6 percent. According to Central Bank’s PR, the inflation rate in the twelve months leading to May 2009 compared to the same span in 2008 has been %23.6. Iranian Diplomacy has discussed the root of these contradictions with Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, Deputy Finance Minister of Khatami’s government:
What is the story behind all the contradictory statistics the government provides?
What Ahmadinejad is currently doing is not reporting economic facts and figures, but manipulating them. He focuses on some economic factors without addressing other connected indices. Meanwhile, his team has significantly changed statistical measures. For example, if you refer to the Book of Statistical Center of Iran, you can see that in 2004 an employed citizen was one who worked a minimum of sixteen hours a day.
This government defines it as a citizen who works one hour a day. Naturally, when definitions change facts and figures change. On inflation, the basket of consumer goods which was the basis of measuring inflation rate has been altered by the ninth administration. So the story is that statistical measures have changed and also, Mr. Ahmadinejad does not adhere to official statistics. There is contradiction between what he reports and what official centers report. And after all, these statistics are presented disconnectedly.
The whole set of statistics should be presented to people. Rates of growth rate, capital gains, employment and inflation, plus expenses, foreign exchange reserves and liquidity must be presented so we have a basis for analysis. Otherwise, it is manipulation of public opinion.
It seems that Ahmadinejad does not follow a methodological way to compare the economic indices. Sometimes he points to the average monthly rate of inflation and other times to the annual rate which is the acceptable figure. What is your opinion?
Mr. Ahmadinejad should compare the inflation rate of the time he came to power and the time his handing power to the next government, but he does not do that. When he stepped in the presidential office the inflation rate was less than 11 percent, but now this rate is –if he believe his claims- 15 percent. That means in his government the inflation rate has increased.
And don’t forget that this foreign exchange income is three-times as large as Khatami’s administration. What a government with could do with 300 billion dollars can not be compared with a government that its oil revenue was 15 billion dollars. However, with Khatami’s presidency we had an growth rate of 8 percent while Ahmadinejad with an average annual foreign exchange income of 75 billion dollars has a 6.3 percent growth rate. Ahmadinejad compares economic indexes while he says nothing about the increasing oil revenue that his government experienced.
Capital gain rate of Khatami’s years was 11 percent which has now become 4.5. Ahmadinejad never explains why the rate has dropped by half.
How do you see the economic plans and objectives of Mir Hosein Musavi?
Up to now he has announced his strategies. Later, this will develop into more detailed economic plans. Those who present the details of their economic plans mainly have propagandistic purposes. Elections are a time to talk of strategies. When it comes to administration, there are hundreds of ways to achieve strategic objectives. These ways will be found by experts and the government will implement them.
What is the story behind all the contradictory statistics the government provides?
What Ahmadinejad is currently doing is not reporting economic facts and figures, but manipulating them. He focuses on some economic factors without addressing other connected indices. Meanwhile, his team has significantly changed statistical measures. For example, if you refer to the Book of Statistical Center of Iran, you can see that in 2004 an employed citizen was one who worked a minimum of sixteen hours a day.
This government defines it as a citizen who works one hour a day. Naturally, when definitions change facts and figures change. On inflation, the basket of consumer goods which was the basis of measuring inflation rate has been altered by the ninth administration. So the story is that statistical measures have changed and also, Mr. Ahmadinejad does not adhere to official statistics. There is contradiction between what he reports and what official centers report. And after all, these statistics are presented disconnectedly.
The whole set of statistics should be presented to people. Rates of growth rate, capital gains, employment and inflation, plus expenses, foreign exchange reserves and liquidity must be presented so we have a basis for analysis. Otherwise, it is manipulation of public opinion.
It seems that Ahmadinejad does not follow a methodological way to compare the economic indices. Sometimes he points to the average monthly rate of inflation and other times to the annual rate which is the acceptable figure. What is your opinion?
Mr. Ahmadinejad should compare the inflation rate of the time he came to power and the time his handing power to the next government, but he does not do that. When he stepped in the presidential office the inflation rate was less than 11 percent, but now this rate is –if he believe his claims- 15 percent. That means in his government the inflation rate has increased.
And don’t forget that this foreign exchange income is three-times as large as Khatami’s administration. What a government with could do with 300 billion dollars can not be compared with a government that its oil revenue was 15 billion dollars. However, with Khatami’s presidency we had an growth rate of 8 percent while Ahmadinejad with an average annual foreign exchange income of 75 billion dollars has a 6.3 percent growth rate. Ahmadinejad compares economic indexes while he says nothing about the increasing oil revenue that his government experienced.
Capital gain rate of Khatami’s years was 11 percent which has now become 4.5. Ahmadinejad never explains why the rate has dropped by half.
How do you see the economic plans and objectives of Mir Hosein Musavi?
Up to now he has announced his strategies. Later, this will develop into more detailed economic plans. Those who present the details of their economic plans mainly have propagandistic purposes. Elections are a time to talk of strategies. When it comes to administration, there are hundreds of ways to achieve strategic objectives. These ways will be found by experts and the government will implement them.