No Serious Opponent for Karzai
Iran is not playing an active role in Afghanistan’s elections. Interview with Faramarz Tamanna.
We are getting closer to Afghanistan’s presidential elections. How do you see the conditions considering that Zalmai Khalilzad and Ali Ahmad Jalali have not entered the contest? How is Karzai’s status?
The circumstances have changed since the final list of presidential hopefuls was released. In fact, speculations changed after the candidates registered for the elections, particularly when Dr. Ali Ahmad Jalali did not step in for presidency. That would definitely have impact on the elections.
At any rate, Afghanistan is at the stage of transition, from tradition to modernity and from factionalism towards nationalism. And as for all the countries which have passed this stage, prognostications can go wrong. After the final list was released, the election atmosphere changed. I believe that all developments lead to re-election of Karzai and will provide the president and his team with another chance to rule the country. The main reason is the absence of serious rivals. If Karzai’s opponents have any chance that is merely due to their personal characteristics not that a party supports them. Afghanistan has not experienced political pluralism and powerful parties during the recent years and that’s why we have no well-known candidate endorsed by parties. No powerful rival will stand against Karzai.
Why didn’t Khalilzad and Jalali join the presidential contest?
I discuss in three fields. One is the domestic field, one is the regional and the last on is the international outlook on Afghanistan. In the domestic field, Karzai’s opponents do not enjoy significant popular support. I can say that each candidate is popular only among a certain ethnicity or group. Of course Jalali could have been a tough challenge. His candidacy and victory in the elections would realize elite circulation. However, besides non-support of the opposition groups, his absence also has regional causes. He failed to gain support from major regional powers such as Iran, Russia, China and India. His talks with Pakistan did not seem enough.
How does the Iranian government view elections in Afghanistan? Who does Iran prefer?
In the past two years, no significant evidence showed that regional states have paid specific attention to Afghanistan’s domestic affairs. The same is true for presidential elections. Two influential neighbors, Iran and Pakistan, which have had remarkable presence in Afghanistan in the past thirty years, have been occupied with their internal problems. Hence, their focus on Afghanistan elections is weak. Pakistan is in struggle with its domestic Taliban. Iran is also preoccupied with the dispute over its nuclear program, its relations with Europe and the United States and the possibility of reconciliation with the United States. So we see that Afghanistan affairs are developing without their influence.
Also, at the international level, there is no agreement on Afghanistan presidential elections between world powers. Therefore, they prefer the status quo, though with some fundamental changes. As you know, Karzai faced a great deal of criticism in the last months against his political and economic policies. So I think Americans prefer Karzai to remain the president provided that he carries out some reforms and pays attention to the critiques. It seems that they have convinced him to consult the United States before making some of the decision. My prediction is that the next administration of Afghanistan will witness a higher level of intervention by the United States in its executive affairs. All these have convinced possible candidates not to enter the elections.
What is the position of Abdullah Abdullah and Ahmadzai against Hamed Karzai?
Abdullah Abdullah is nominated by Afghanistan largest opposition group National United Front. However General Fahim – financial supporter and one of its most prominent members- has been introduced as Karzai’s vice president and this has created schism inside the group. Also some of the group members believed that he couldn’t be their ideal candidate. Ahmadzai’s vice presidents are not also as renowned as Karzai’s deputies. To this add international support for Karzai. So Karzai is ahead of these two candidates and I don’t think the elections would see a second round. Of course there are rumors about Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai’s withdrawal in favor of Dr. Abdullah. This may give Abdullah Abdullah a better standing but it won’t affect the final result of elections.
Which candidate is closer to Iran’s views?
I think Iran is acting rather inactively in Afghanistan’s elections. Iran’s relations with Karzai’s administration haven’t been bad in the past eight years. He is a moderate after all and has provided a chance for all Afghan groups to join the government, including Shiites and the Persian speaking population. Iran may not want to risk for a change in Afghanistan’s political system. It also thinks that another administration may not be more aligned with its interests and policies. So its current stance is in fact a green light to Karzai.
Traditionally, Iran’s view to east has been overshadowed by its foreign diplomacy regarding west. That has constricted Iran’s sphere of influence in east and departed it from countries it has cultural and civilization commonalities with. Iran’s eastern neighbors aren’t content with this policy. This is a result of Iran’s neglecting cultural and civilization policies in their opinion. In Ahmadinejad’s last days Iran has further inclined towards west and Middle East and is paying less attention to east. A balance between these two spheres seems necessary, though Iran is at the threshold of elections and even its diplomatic body has focused on domestic developments.
The circumstances have changed since the final list of presidential hopefuls was released. In fact, speculations changed after the candidates registered for the elections, particularly when Dr. Ali Ahmad Jalali did not step in for presidency. That would definitely have impact on the elections.
At any rate, Afghanistan is at the stage of transition, from tradition to modernity and from factionalism towards nationalism. And as for all the countries which have passed this stage, prognostications can go wrong. After the final list was released, the election atmosphere changed. I believe that all developments lead to re-election of Karzai and will provide the president and his team with another chance to rule the country. The main reason is the absence of serious rivals. If Karzai’s opponents have any chance that is merely due to their personal characteristics not that a party supports them. Afghanistan has not experienced political pluralism and powerful parties during the recent years and that’s why we have no well-known candidate endorsed by parties. No powerful rival will stand against Karzai.
Why didn’t Khalilzad and Jalali join the presidential contest?
I discuss in three fields. One is the domestic field, one is the regional and the last on is the international outlook on Afghanistan. In the domestic field, Karzai’s opponents do not enjoy significant popular support. I can say that each candidate is popular only among a certain ethnicity or group. Of course Jalali could have been a tough challenge. His candidacy and victory in the elections would realize elite circulation. However, besides non-support of the opposition groups, his absence also has regional causes. He failed to gain support from major regional powers such as Iran, Russia, China and India. His talks with Pakistan did not seem enough.
How does the Iranian government view elections in Afghanistan? Who does Iran prefer?
In the past two years, no significant evidence showed that regional states have paid specific attention to Afghanistan’s domestic affairs. The same is true for presidential elections. Two influential neighbors, Iran and Pakistan, which have had remarkable presence in Afghanistan in the past thirty years, have been occupied with their internal problems. Hence, their focus on Afghanistan elections is weak. Pakistan is in struggle with its domestic Taliban. Iran is also preoccupied with the dispute over its nuclear program, its relations with Europe and the United States and the possibility of reconciliation with the United States. So we see that Afghanistan affairs are developing without their influence.
Also, at the international level, there is no agreement on Afghanistan presidential elections between world powers. Therefore, they prefer the status quo, though with some fundamental changes. As you know, Karzai faced a great deal of criticism in the last months against his political and economic policies. So I think Americans prefer Karzai to remain the president provided that he carries out some reforms and pays attention to the critiques. It seems that they have convinced him to consult the United States before making some of the decision. My prediction is that the next administration of Afghanistan will witness a higher level of intervention by the United States in its executive affairs. All these have convinced possible candidates not to enter the elections.
What is the position of Abdullah Abdullah and Ahmadzai against Hamed Karzai?
Abdullah Abdullah is nominated by Afghanistan largest opposition group National United Front. However General Fahim – financial supporter and one of its most prominent members- has been introduced as Karzai’s vice president and this has created schism inside the group. Also some of the group members believed that he couldn’t be their ideal candidate. Ahmadzai’s vice presidents are not also as renowned as Karzai’s deputies. To this add international support for Karzai. So Karzai is ahead of these two candidates and I don’t think the elections would see a second round. Of course there are rumors about Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai’s withdrawal in favor of Dr. Abdullah. This may give Abdullah Abdullah a better standing but it won’t affect the final result of elections.
Which candidate is closer to Iran’s views?
I think Iran is acting rather inactively in Afghanistan’s elections. Iran’s relations with Karzai’s administration haven’t been bad in the past eight years. He is a moderate after all and has provided a chance for all Afghan groups to join the government, including Shiites and the Persian speaking population. Iran may not want to risk for a change in Afghanistan’s political system. It also thinks that another administration may not be more aligned with its interests and policies. So its current stance is in fact a green light to Karzai.
Traditionally, Iran’s view to east has been overshadowed by its foreign diplomacy regarding west. That has constricted Iran’s sphere of influence in east and departed it from countries it has cultural and civilization commonalities with. Iran’s eastern neighbors aren’t content with this policy. This is a result of Iran’s neglecting cultural and civilization policies in their opinion. In Ahmadinejad’s last days Iran has further inclined towards west and Middle East and is paying less attention to east. A balance between these two spheres seems necessary, though Iran is at the threshold of elections and even its diplomatic body has focused on domestic developments.