Iran will harm more with the ascension of crisis in east Asia
Iranian Diplomacy has interviewed Dr. Jamshid Pazhouyan, member of Macroeconomics Research Group in Center of Strategic Studies, Iranian Expediency Council.
On Saturday and Sunday, Ministers of Trade, Petroleum and Finance and a group of Ahmadinejad’s financial officials stated that the global finance crisis has reached Iran.
Iranian Diplomacy has interviewed Dr. Jamshid Pazhouyan, member of Macroeconomics Research Group in Center of Strategic Studies, Iranian Expediency Council.
Tell us about the second wave of global financial crisis that is about to affect Iran’s economy more than before.
Financial shock can be contagious. The current global financial crisis started from real estate section in U.S. banking system. Then it moved to stock exchange and capital system. Subsequently, Europe and East Asian countries such as Japan were affected by the crisis. The consequences of this crisis in East Asia will have graver effects on Iran’s economy, since these countries, especially Japan, are Iran’s major trade partners and purchase Iran’s oil.
Why will the second wave have a more intense effect on Iran’s ?
We can’t claim that the first wave didn’t impact the Iranian economy. Some say Iran was not affected by the first wave since it is not connected to the global financial and banking system. That’s not true. The initial aftermath of the crisis reduced global price of oil, so Iran’s oil revenues decreased. The world is all connected and Iran may even undergo the worst harm since oil - the item influenced most by the global crisis -is its major export.
Iran will face further problems if the global financial crisis continues to harm East Asian countries, especially Japan, and leads to a recession and price fall in these countries.
Europe has stated that it will weather the crisis until 2011 and the United States is hoping to overcome the crisis in 2009. How long will it take for Iran?
Iran faces other problems. It is having structural problems with its economy to which it should pay attention at first. The more we pay attention to reforming the structure, the less we face problems.
How are the global oil price and Iran’s budget based on a $37 oil related to the problem?
The fall in oil price has other reasons that may continue if the global financial crisis lingers. But even the current price is intolerable for Iran. Last year, Iran had regulated it budget on a $100 oil. The more oil price decreases, the more the pressure on Iran’s economy.
Iranian Diplomacy has interviewed Dr. Jamshid Pazhouyan, member of Macroeconomics Research Group in Center of Strategic Studies, Iranian Expediency Council.
Tell us about the second wave of global financial crisis that is about to affect Iran’s economy more than before.
Financial shock can be contagious. The current global financial crisis started from real estate section in U.S. banking system. Then it moved to stock exchange and capital system. Subsequently, Europe and East Asian countries such as Japan were affected by the crisis. The consequences of this crisis in East Asia will have graver effects on Iran’s economy, since these countries, especially Japan, are Iran’s major trade partners and purchase Iran’s oil.
Why will the second wave have a more intense effect on Iran’s ?
We can’t claim that the first wave didn’t impact the Iranian economy. Some say Iran was not affected by the first wave since it is not connected to the global financial and banking system. That’s not true. The initial aftermath of the crisis reduced global price of oil, so Iran’s oil revenues decreased. The world is all connected and Iran may even undergo the worst harm since oil - the item influenced most by the global crisis -is its major export.
Iran will face further problems if the global financial crisis continues to harm East Asian countries, especially Japan, and leads to a recession and price fall in these countries.
Europe has stated that it will weather the crisis until 2011 and the United States is hoping to overcome the crisis in 2009. How long will it take for Iran?
Iran faces other problems. It is having structural problems with its economy to which it should pay attention at first. The more we pay attention to reforming the structure, the less we face problems.
How are the global oil price and Iran’s budget based on a $37 oil related to the problem?
The fall in oil price has other reasons that may continue if the global financial crisis lingers. But even the current price is intolerable for Iran. Last year, Iran had regulated it budget on a $100 oil. The more oil price decreases, the more the pressure on Iran’s economy.