`Caucasus Alliance’ Minus Iran `Doomed’
Iinterview with Assadollah Athari, a Turkish affairs expert and member of the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran about the idea of a `Caucasus Alliance’
What follows is an `Iranian Diplomacy’ interview with Assadollah Athari, a Turkish affairs expert and member of the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran about the idea of a `Caucasus Alliance’ proposed by the Turkish President Abdullah Gul during his recent visit to Armenia.
Q: In his recent visit to Armenia, the Turkish President Abdullah Gul proposed a `Caucasus Alliance’ with membership of Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, US and Russia. But no mention is made of Iran here. What is your opinion?
A: The dossier of this issue was formerly in the hands of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Meantime, this Turkish proposal already faces a big challenge from Armenia itself. The Armenians accuse Turkey of being an ally of Azerbaijan and a threat to Armenian interests. Therefore, it is likely for the Armenian policymaking apparatus to propose Iran’s addition to this circle. On the other hand, Turkey does not have enough weight in the region to act as the pivot of such an alliance. On the other hand, the communication routes of Turkey with Armenia have been blocked for long years. Therefore, there could be two interpretations out of this proposal:
- First, Turkey wants to say that its foreign policy is not based on Neo-Ottomanism, namely a return to the Ottoman era where the main Turkish focus was on cooperation with Islamic states. Ankara wants to show that it would also cooperate with non-Muslim states in the larger Middle East, including Central Asia and the Caucasus. Armenia is one of these countries. Abdullah Gul’s landmark visit to Armenia is a significant event.
- Secondly, one must realize which country is a political heavyweight in the region. In my opinion, Iran enjoys both civilizational weight as well as political weight. It also has the non-interventionist and non-ideological experience in settling regional issues, one example of which was witnessed in Tajikistan. It also once attempted to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan but the situation at the time was different.
Therefore, it can be said that Iran’s experience is much more positive than those of other countries, such as Georgia which is facing a mountain of problems; or Turkey which is accused of siding with Azerbaijan against Armenia. Russian presence in the alliance would even make it more complicated. Due to the problems surfacing between Moscow and Ankara over movement of Turkish naval fleet in the Black Sea, Russia has announced that Turkish goods should not arrive in Russia. This is a big problem alone. The United States too is a source of numerous differences because of its support for Georgia and the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. Taking all these problems into account, the formation of such an alliance seems very unlikely at this time. All the countries invited to join the alliance have differences with each other. This is a raw idea and unlikely to take shape specially if Iran were absent in the alliance.
Q: But in view of the differences between Iran and the United States and their conflict of interests on numerous cases, don’t you think an Iranian presence in such an alliance would be sophisticated?
A: Incidentally, it seems that Iran and US have no differences at the level of a larger Middle East. Tehran and Washington have no differences in the fields of geopolitical issues, Iraq, Afghanistan and containment of Russia where Iran could play an important role. In my opinion, the only source of dispute between Iran and the United States is Israel. I absolutely disagree that Tehran and Washington have conflict of interests in the region.
The interests of Iran and the US in the region are almost identical. It is important to contain the ambitions of Russia but unfortunately no one pays enough attention to this issue in Iran. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former US presidential foreign policy advisor once said a powerful Iran who could balance relations between the big powers, could also serve the interests of the United States.
Q: Is it important for Iran to be a member of such an alliance?
A: I think without Iran such an alliance would be doomed to failure. It could settle no problem in the absence of Iran. As you know, all these countries were members of OSCE but failed to resolve their problems. However, the Turkish-proposed alliance could be a first step and an initial idea. I also think Iran has already proved that as neighbors of Armenia and Azerbaijan with good and friendly relations with both, it can bring their views closer to one another. As I already mentioned as an example, Iran has a successful experience in settling disputes between the government and opposition in Tajikistan. These are positive experiences for Iran. Moreover, it is very important for Iran not to interfere and not to act ideologically in its mediations.
Q: How long, do you think, would it take for the alliance to enter the execution stage?
A: I think it is only a preliminary thought.
Q: You mean one cannot pin much hope on its accomplishment?
A: As I said Iran’s exclusion and the existing differences between Turkey and Armenia; between Georgia and Russia; between Russia and US; between Turkey and Russia; etc. would make the job very difficult. If we could understand this reality and act accordingly then we could talk about the realization of the alliance!
Q: How if Russia is excluded? Would it be easier to form the alliance then?
A: It won’t be easy.