Syrian Demonstrations Are Genuine

How much more complicated can the situation become in Syria? The Assad government complains of radical armed gangs are determined to subvert the regime and the international community has turned on a deaf ear towards Damascus’ version of the crisis. Sirous Borna Boldaji, member of the parliament that has recently visited Syria to witness the situation has spoken of his observations with Iranian Diplomacy:

IRD: You made a field trip to Syria recently. Tell us about your observations.

SBB: First of all, I have to say the movement in Syria is truly domestic and popular. In the meantime, Bashar Assad has increased the pace of reforms launched by his father Hafiz in the last two years of his presidency in the political and economic fields, as well as relations with Iran and Hezbollah. Nonetheless, the course of protests in Syria has become irreversible and now it has found a religious face as mosques have become the hot spots during Ramadan and Friday prayers. The Baath Party however has learnt a lesson from its Iraqi counterpart and is trying to buy time.

IRD: Do you think Assad can weather the crisis by advancing the reforms?

SBB: At the moment the radical Salafis, and not the dominant Alevite sect (which is more sociopolitical rather than religious in nature) is the main alternative to the Assad regime. They are fervently anti-Shia and are fond of sectarian profiling, such as marking the house and stores of Shi’as to ostracize them. This has happened in cities like Homs and Aleppo.

IRD: This situation could prove dangerous for the US too.

SBB: Yes. And this is a point worth serious consideration for Washington. That may have put guided democracy on Pentagon and CIA’s agenda. Solidarity between the radical Islamists of Syria and Saudi Arabia will bolster terrorist activities.

IRD: Wouldn’t this provoke revenge from other sects?

SBB: Alevites, and also the Christians, Druze and even Kurds despite their weak base in the power structure, have little motives to retaliate. The Salafists but nevertheless eager to receive financial aid from their traditional supporters in the region and continue their actions. However, lack of a unifying strategy and an charismatic leader is the weak point of the Syrian opposition.

IRD: What will be the final outcome of the crisis in Syria?

SBB: I think the next round of violence in Syria will be as gory as Libya. But if Bashar Assad decides to step down, he won’t show as appalling atrocity as Qaddafi. He will try to control the situation up until then. The Islamic Republic and Hezbollah should convince Assad to follow reforms more seriously if they want him to survive.

IRD: Some analysts point to the relative peace in Damascus to argue that Bashar Assad is still popular among most Syrians. How much do you agree with them?

SBB: Yes. Bashar is still popular among the Syrians, and if there were an election to be held tomorrow, he would most likely be reelected as the presidents. I did not sense turmoil in Damascus and ordinary life was going on. One major problem in Syria is that the security forces have not been trained to handle such situations and are trigger-happy. Another problem is that Bashar Assad is void of trump cards to persuade the citizens. He may open up the political atmosphere or revise the constitution, but practical plans –such as the Purposeful Subsidies plan implemented in Iran- are not feasible.

IRD: Could Assad rely on foreign help?

SBB: Other countries won’t aid Assad without conditions. The want Syria to stop interfering in Lebanon’s domestic affairs, reduce the level of ties with Iran, stop supporting Hezbollah and so on. These fall at odds with Bashar’s long-term strategy. He is not like Saad Hariri who made agreements with Ahmadinejad in Tehran and changed his position after returning to Beirut. Moreover, the Syrian president substantially revised his policies after the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri but Washington did not move towards rapprochement.

IRD: Why are Americans treating the Syrian regime in this way?

SBB: US has changed its strategy in the Persian Gulf region and the Middle East. It has stopped unconditional support for oil-rich dictatorships of the region. If US decides to turn a blind eye on the situation in Syria it will display another case of double standards, since it endorsed the changes in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.

IRD: The rule of Salafis will be harmful for US interests. How will Washington handle this situation?

IRD: I think the next US president will be a Republican. In that case, they won’t try to overthrow Assad but will impose an agenda on his regime forcefully.

IRD: How serious is the prospect of a civil war in Syria? For instance between the Alevites and Sunnis, or between the Kurds and the government just like the situation in Iraq?

SBB: It’s highly unlikely. Syria does not have the potential, and religious and ethnic gaps are not comparable to that of Iraq. Even the intensification of such gaps is far-fetched. Kurds have had no serious clash with the central government during the last 20 years. The citizens are not mentally ready to start fighting with the government. Also, Syrians are not as assertive as the citizens of Lebanon, Iraq or Iran. The next regime also can’t guarantee a better economic situation for its citizens.

IRD: How do you view Turkey’s policy towards Syria?