The American Attitude towards Elections in Iran

With the ninth parliamentary elections nearby and the negotiations going on about this election; a strategic understanding of the elements influencing the Majles’ poll seems necessary. Four main players influence this election. First is the external player who sees this election as an opportunity to relocate its strategy with regards to Iran. Second is the “Fetneh Current” [the Green Movement] which considers the election as an escape from the 1388 events. The third group, the “Astray current”, considers the ninth parliamentary poll a step to remove the structural obstacles from its way. And last are the Principlists who should depict a new model of their camp and vividly delimit its borders with the “Astray Current”.

This game will certainly be a very confusing one and the confrontation of these four sides will create a few difficult months ahead for the Iranian political activists and analysts. This article will investigate the American view toward the domestic Iranian politics, and their project for this election.

There are two main elements which have to be pointed out initially. The first one is that all the parties involved in this equation know that they should postpone their plans for the 11^th presidential election until the parliamentary election results are out. This election will determine the preciseness and the social and political weight of the different actors in the next presidential election. Even though all sides try to fit this election into the bigger plan of the presidential election, many know that the results could turn out surprising and therefore force these sides to reconsider their platforms. Secondly, all parties except the Leader’s Principlist loyalists feel that these events are not to their favor, and to succeed in the next election they should create a state of turbulence in the next few months. Therefore, creating a state of emergency is among the plans of the Fetneh Current, the Astray Current and foreign actors.

How do the Americans see Iran’s elections? Washington wants Fetneh to once again gain power in Iran’s political scene. During the recent months, the Americans have been explicitly announcing their support for a specific party or movement in Iran. This is in contrast with the key American foreign policy fact that “the Reformists should not be considered as Americans”. But recently they announce their support for their friends in Iran on a weekly basis. Why is this? There are a few simple reasons to that:

1-       The first reason is that the Americans have realized that the Fetneh Current has lost its social and political stamina. However, the Americans are hopeful that with the behavior of the Astray Current, the Fetneh Current will find a platform to once again rise. In a situation like this, they feel that if the Fetneh Current understands that it has lost its foreign support then there will be no hope for their resistance.  

2-       The second reason is due to the developing understanding of the West from the Fetneh Current in Iran. This movement began by introducing itself as a domestic and revolutionary movement but it put away this propaganda very fast and revealed that it welcomes the international support. They are sending signs to the Americans that the Fetneh Current is not afraid anymore to show its American roots to the Iranian public, therefore there is no need to take any prudence on the American side.

3-       The third reason is called ‘the addressing process to the Iranian public mind’ by some analysts. The Americans do not want any confusion about their stance in Iran; therefore they hint at the Iranian public that it is only through Fetneh’s empowerment that the American pressure on Iran will ease.

Generally we can see that the American project in the Iranian parliamentary election has gone beyond mere talking. The projects that the West will follow in the next few months are as follows:

1-       First and most importantly, the Americans want the memory of the year 1388 to remain in the minds of eth Iranian public. This is exactly why some talks concerning the legality of the next election has been proposed by some anti-revolutionary forces and it has even trapped some Principlists who think are fighting the Astray Current. The Americans are coding to the public mind like they did in the last months leading to 1388 presidential election, the purpose behind which is to undermine the election and its robustness.

2-       In their next step they try to maximize the struggle over power, especially now that they’ve learned that creating a crisis is a strategy played by some Iranian political trends.  The analysis of Western resources show that escalating the conflict over power has some important benefits: first that, it causes the current daily affairs of the country to reach a deadlock. That’s why the Americans have focused their sanctions on fields which they believe will create the most dissatisfaction among people. They also believe that the escalation of power struggle in Iran will result in disclosures by different parties against their rivals, which could gradually reveal the secrets of the Nezam. Third, the Americans believe that mounting strife will deprive Iran from enjoying the regional opportunities available to it and provide the situation for the Americans to force their management upon the regional developments.