Syria should watch out for Isolation

What Syria is witnessing is a transition era in the geography of this country and the region which has been termed the “Arab Spring”. Therefore, not only Syria but the rest of the region is undergoing the same geographical and territorial political developments.

If we accept this logic then we should emphasize that this transition era is an era of crisis. And regimes that are not able to have a precise understanding of these developments that are created by a growth of knowledge have to stand against their people.

From this perspective, Syria which is faced with a wave of demands by its people has to insist on amnesty and reform, considering its background of crackdowns. Therefore, these promises are late in term of timing; meaning that this retreat by Bashar Assad will only increase the crisis. In other words, it will increase the motivation of reformists in the Syrian geography.

The concept of “hopefulness” in the political and social uprising literature indicates that the retreat of the ruler gives more hope to the reformists or revolutionaries, hence escalating the movements. Therefore I believe that Bashar Assad’s promises will increase the demands over his conduct.

A Comparison of Syria and Libya in the International System

The situation of Libya and Syria in terms of the reflection of their social, political, economic and even geographical conditions, is different. The process of the developments in Syria is also different from that of Libya, and it seems that these differences have been taken into consideration in the recent G8 meeting.

The operational stage in Libya has reached a point where the West is seeking a proper situation to deal with Ghaddafi. In other words, the solution of combining smart and soft power to strip Ghaddafi of his legitimacy was proposed. As a result, the public mind at different layers considers no legitimacy for Ghaddafi. As we have witnessed, Ghadddafi has no position even in the Arab League.

However, these steps have not been taken for Syria, and we could say that they are about to be taken. Therefore, the West is trying to create the same path for Bashar Assad with the help of the G8. As a result we will witness the same process of de-legitimizing Bashar Assad in Syria that we witnessed in Libya.

Turkey and Syria

Turkey is trying to implement an Islamic pattern in the region through the use of smart power. In addition it is trying to act as a balancing power in the regional movements. In other words, this country is trying to portray itself as the center for solving regional crises through diplomacy and politics. But in regards to what is going on in Syria, this country should await further harsh reactions and pressure by regional countries.

In addition we have to add that burning the flags of countries in Syria is not a very welcoming act, and Syria should remember that its allies will support it to the point that their own interests and the political paradigms allow them to do so.