Washington’s Syrian Bafflement

IRD: Unrest in Syria has spiraled into violence anticipated by no one. The news coming from restive Syrian towns is anything but reassuring. Neither Bashar Assad’s regional allies, nor the US and Israel- who have strenuously tried to marginalize Syria since the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri- are content with what is happening in the streets of Syrian towns these days. The string of events have meant difficult days for the Assad Family. Ali Bigdeli, professor at Shahid Beheshti University and US affairs expert, tells Iranian diplomacy that the US’ main concern is the lack of a credible alternative for Assad:
 

IRD: How should the US deal with Syria? Washington was trying to normalize ties with Damascus in the past two years, but at this juncture it cannot keep silent over the violence used against protestors in Syria.
 

AB: The US’ approach to Bashar Assad and his late father Hafiz has been two-faced. Despite lip service, Hafiz was a harmless neighbor for Israel, and just as innocuous for the Americans. No bullet crossed the border into Israel after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Bashar Assad toed his father’s line in treating Israel. From this point of view, the Israelis prefer that Bashar Assad keeps his seat of power. However, as self-proclaimed advocates of human rights, the Americans feel the pressure to take a firm stance against the violent crackdown against Syrian demonstrators. Bashar Assad’s handling of the situation was criticized by both President Obama and Hillary Clinton. The United States imposed sanctions on three Syrian officials two days ago.
 

IRD: What are Washington’s real Syrian concerns today?
 

AB: I think the Americans were caught unaware by the unfolding events in Syria –as with the other uprisings of the region. So the US can’t think of an alternative for Bashar Assad. They don’t have any plans for the post-Bashar era. If any incident as bad as an explosion of a gas pipeline which halted exports to Israel and Jordan happens in Syria, the US is going to have rough days. In Syria’s case, the White House can’t decide as promptly as it did with Libya.
 

IRD: How have Bashar Assad’s measures undermined his regional credibility, especially with regard to the Resistance movement that saw Assad as a supporter?
 

AB: Reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah, which were drafted in Cairo, show that the Palestinians have given up hope on Syria, which used to be their most convenient regional base. This was an alarm bell for Syria, a negative message for Bashar Assad, indeed. Hezbollah may follow a different path. It has close-knit relationship with Iran and may aid Damascus –as its strategic lifeline- to curtail the protests.
 

IRD: How do you analyze Iran's approach toward the Syrian protests?
 

AB: I think Iran's reaction –support for Bashar Assad and a blackout on the news of Syria’s unrest- was premature. None of the countries in which the protests have reached this level will return to their previous state of affairs. Syria is now another Libya. Neither Qaddafi nor Assad can reinstate their positions. Iran's attitude was unrefined- more emotional than rational. Iran could follow a Turkish pattern toward Syria: low profile and far-sighted.