Iran and Saudi Arabia, from conflict to enmity

The Saudi anger is because of the situation in the region and Iran’s role in it; according to Saudi’s close ethnic mindset, Iran has no place in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia is also angry at the US policies in the Middle East. According to the Saudis, the US has unintentionally prepared the situation for Iran to increase its power and influence.

Saudi Arabia’s criticisms of US Middle East policies reached their highest point when the Arab uprisings began. Saudi Arabia condemns the US for the early fall of Mubarak and Ben Ali and the spread of these uprisings to other Arab countries, and is in no agreement with the US in regards to any other country but Libya.

Saudi Arabia has not still not taken much position about Syria. But it seems like with the growing protests against Bashar Assad and despite the improvement of their relation with this country in the past few years they will not care much for Assad.

Bahrain’s revolution took place in the context of the new Middle East situation, which is referred to as the spring of the Arabs. According to Saudi Arabia, Shiites coming to power in Bahrain will increase Iran’s influence dragging this danger to Saudi’s gates. The Bahraini government has close ties with Saudi Arabia. The economy and security of this small island is completely dependent on Saudi Arabia and the aids of its big neighbors.

The revolution in Bahrain can be an inspiration to the Saudi people as well. Therefore, the Saudis demanded for the crackdown of the Bahraini people since they started protesting. On the other hand, Iran cannot be indifferent to the fate of the Bahraini people and the Saudi troops entering the Island. In addition to emotional and religious ties between the people of Bahrain and Iran, we should not forget that in the very recent past (1971) Iran agreed to the demand of the Bahraini people for independence. Naturally, the entrance of the forces of a third country is not acceptable for Iran.

The US also has multi-dimensional interests in this region. On the one hand, they want to show their support for democracy in all Middle Eastern countries and on the other hand, they have good relations with Al Khalifa and Al Saud. America’s fifth fleet headquarter is located in Bahrain. In addition, the existence of an important global financial center in Bahrain and the establishment of regional branches of international banks in this center adds to the international importance of Bahrain. The collection of all these facts determines American’s policy in Bahrain. 

Therefore, it is natural that the US did not stand on the way of Saudi Arabia’s anger at the developments in Bahrain, despite its initial support for the demands of the Bahraini people. However, the explanation of these double standards in US policies towards the Arab uprisings has become difficult for the diplomatic apparatus of the US while criticism is rising on the double standards of the West.

In its last attempt, regarding the situation in Bahrain Iran has written a letter to the UN Secretary General and asked for the intervention of the Security Council in the case. The regional situation is disturbing and if the tensions are not controlled, they could turn into conflicts between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Even though the West is trapped in a paradox but we should remember that, its biggest concern in the region is Iran and if it can use the issue of Bahrain to unite the international community against Iran it will surely do so. Meanwhile the interest of the Bahraini people and their revolution will fall victim to the regional and international competitions among regional and international powers.

The solution to Bahrain’s issue and controlling the tensions there depends on avoiding further tensions in the region and restraint from all parties involved. The Bahraini people had almost reached their demands through peaceful demonstrations. The military intervention of Saudi Arabia changed the equation. Perhaps if the opposition in Bahrain had agreed to negotiate with the Crown Prince of Bahrain there would no need for Saudi military intervention.

The Saudis seem to have advantage through their military but we should not consider the situation of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East as ideal. Military presence and intervention in another country will have great expenses for them. When everything calms down the presence of these troops will become problematic for both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

Currently Saudi Arabia is surrounded by Arab uprisings. In addition to the fall of their two allies in Tunisia and Egypt, Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen cannot stand longer and has no chance of staying. The Yemenis traditionally do not have good relations with the Saudis. The next government will surely not abide by the Saudi rules as Saleh did. In addition to the problem of al-Qaeda in Yemen, the Saudis are also worried about old wounds between the two countries opening up.

Saudi Arabia had annexed three provinces of Yemen to its soil and the Yemenis blame Saleh for this loss. The Saudis also participated in the Sana’a War against northern Yemenis in 2009 and killed a number of Zaidis in northern Yemen. Moreover, based on a general belief the Yemenis consider Malek Abdul Aziz and his sons the reason to their poverty and distress.

Note that Malek Abdul Aziz had advised his children to keep the Yemenis poor in order to dispose of their threat. In addition, the old elderly rulers of Riyadh are faced with a succession crisis and a domestic crisis in case of the death of Malek Abdullah due to the simultaneous illness of the King and the Crown Prince.  According to these point the Saudis never had the upper hand in Middle East developments and their military intervention in Bahrain was not a wise decision made from a position of power. This decision was taken out of desperation and anger and the situation will become even more complicated for the Saudis.

In addition, the conflict between the two major oil producers of the region will put the global energy security at risk. Especially because the Middle East was pre-engaged in conflicts before tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia got high.  

In the long term, this tension will not be to the benefit of the West either. Although the West might seem content for being able to unite the international community against Iran and disabling Iran from riding the wave of Arab uprisings. Nevertheless, at the end tensions and outraged enmity in the Middle East is not to the benefit of anyone. Understanding this situation is not very difficult for regional rulers. However, what is worrisome is poor diplomacy in the two big countries of the region, meaning Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is trapped in bad domestic and external situations and cannot make its decisions wisely. Our diplomatic apparatus has also been unable to have an influential presence in the regional and international scene compatible to its increased power due to regional developments. The recommendation which can be offered in the present circumstances, is controlling the crisis with Saudi Arabia and enabling diplomatic solutions to encourage the resumption of negotiations between the Bahraini people and their government after the exit of Saudi troops.