Is Turkey losing credibility in the Middle East?

This has not always been the case, and it is only in the last decade that Turkey has been able to take on this role thanks to its own democratization and modernization process that has impressed populations in neighboring Middle Eastern and North African states. The Turkey of the 1990s, both politically and economically, was not a model for anybody. While the new approach of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has contributed to this, at the same time the role of the EU via Turkey’s membership process, which has brought about key political and economic reforms, has resulted in Turkey becoming more democratic and prosperous and making the country the kind that others aspire to. The ruling AK Party seeks to become a political stabilizer and the leading economic power in the Muslim world.

However, some recent actions and statements from Turkey’s leadership have shaken Ankara’s credibility, which it acquired during the crisis in Egypt; it is quickly ebbing away due to its actions with regard to Libya and now Syria – countries run by dictators who have enjoyed very warm relations with Prime Minister Erdoğan and others on his team.

Ankara seemed not quite sure whether or not Colonel Gaddafi would go away. That’s why they did not want to burn their bridges given that Turkey does a lot of business in Libya. But this “let’s wait and see attitude” has cost Turkey. Ankara’s unclear policy towards Libya has landed it in uncomfortable waters with opposition forces because of Ankara’s perceived support of the Gaddafi regime in the early days -- including its strong opposition to NATO involvement (later a complete U-turn was made on this) and more recently because of Erdoğan’s remarks announcing that opposition rebels should not be provided with weapons because it would contribute to terrorism. Consequently, opposition rebels attacked the Turkish Consulate in Benghazi and declared Erdoğan persona non grata for Libyan people.

This anti-Turkish sentiment from fellow Muslims has come as a nasty shock to Ankara, which prides itself on being “looked up to” by the peoples of the region. Salt has also been rubbed into this wound with the praise now being heaped onto French President Nicolas Sarkozy. While Turkey tries to repair the damage, Ankara has virtually no credibility with the opposition, while Sarkozy has become their champion because he has led international efforts in Libya – coordinating meetings and being the first to act militarily to the atrocities being carried out by the Gaddafi regime.

And now Turkey seriously risks losing credibility in Syria, too. More bloody days seem to be ahead for Syria as security forces continue to crack down on protesters, who are becoming bolder.

In my opinion, the recent Turkish Foreign Ministry statement asking Syrians not to revolt but instead support reforms proposed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was a serious mistake. Al-Assad and his powerful clan run one of world’s most brutal dictatorships. Turkey’s message was exactly the wrong one to send to the population of a country that more than any other has admired the changes taking place in Turkey given its proximity, which has allowed many Syrians to cross the border. It has sent the message that Ankara supports this cruel and treacherous regime.

While emergency rule has now been lifted, it is not enough and is more likely no more than window dressing. While President al-Assad has been making promises to his people, his security forces have been out in the street beating people, and Erdoğan and others should be communicating the same message that they gave to Mubarak – listen to your people and leave. More than 80 people have already been killed in Syria since pro-democracy protests began, with thousands participating in pro-democracy marches in several parts of the country. They are not likely to back down and are ready to continue to brave the security apparatus. Syrians want this man -- who has oppressed and abused them for over 11 years -- to leave. They deserve support -- not fairy tale declarations and empty promises that this man has changed and will bring them reforms and democracy.

Turkey finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable spot with the heat in Yemen (where Ankara also has friendly relations with the leadership) on the rise. Similar uncomfortable situations could also occur. Ankara seems to have a selective policy when it comes to the removal of dictators. Turkey will only remain a credible role model if it maintains the respect of ordinary people and is able to engage in meaningful dialogue with opposition forces.