A Transition to Democratic Regimes

25 April 2011 | 04:04 Code : 12167 Middle East.

By Hassan Beheshtipour

IRD: Through historical analysis of the developments in Middle East and North Africa, it is understood that the current developments are not the results of Western thought and planning. While assessing the developments of the contemporary world in the last sixty years, we see that after the Second World War a war broke out between the Koreas in 1950, which was the first direct confrontation between the Eastern and Western blocks. After the war, North and South Korea were formed, resulting in the first global polarization in East Asia after the Cold War.

In the beginning of the sixties, with the decline of the British Empire, African independence struggles bore fruit. Eighteen African countries achieved independence in less than seven months, while prior to that only 9 out of 52 countries were independent in Africa. Later, more countries gained their independence. In this era we witnessed neocolonial policies. Nevertheless, new developments in international relations were established after the formation of independent countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

In 1971 Nixon announced that the dollar would no longer be backed by gold, and it would be demand and supply that would determine the value of the dollar. This unilateral and selfish action resulted in the flow of dollars into the market not backed by gold.

In the last years of the seventies and in the early eighties we witnessed four other developments in the world:

1- The Islamic Revolution in Iran

2- The occupation of the American embassy in Iran

3- The occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet Red Army

4- The Iran-Iraq War

These four developments were related to each other. The Iranian revolution was an anti-authoritarian uprising based on Islamic thought. The takeover of the American embassy also destroyed the so-called grandeur of the US worldwide. The invasion of Afghanistan by another superpower- that led to its fall in a decade- and the invasion of Iraq which prepared the situation for further American involvement in the region, were all important developments which have left their deep influence in the global arena.

In the last years of the 80’s and after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the world witnessed the collapse of dictator regimes in Eastern Europe. A short while later, in December 1991, the Soviet Union and later Yugoslavia also collapsed, resulting in the disappearance of the five decades of bipolarism after the Cold war.

At the start of the third millennium when the US was trying to design a unipolar world, the 9/11 attacks occurred, and later the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, which were major developments in international relations. These developments guided the world to a transitional era in which the new system was not ruled by superpowers but by the oppressed people. All these developments were not a project designed by the powers, but were results of the new balance created in other countries.

Now, Middle Eastern and African countries are undergoing changes as a result of the demand of their people. People in these countries have bypassed parties and leaders and have taken to the streets to stand against their dictator regimes’ armies. These developments will surely reduce the influence of the dominant powers, because the important characteristic of these uprisings is their demand for freedom and democracy. In such a situation, a dominant power like the United States seeks to maintain its influence in the region.

While the US is trapped in Afghanistan and Iraq, it tries to ensure that regimes that replace the toppled ones in the region all follow Western secularism and democracy, and have no conflicts with Israel and Western liberal thought. The US welcomes the developments if these prerequisites are met.

The important points in these developments are the multiple trends of demands by the people. Considering all the trends in Arab countries, we understand that Islamic trends have reached a coalition with nationalist ones in order to get rid of the dictators. In some of these countries such as Egypt, Islamic trends have more popular support, and in some like Tunisia nationalist and Western trends have gained more popular momentum. In some cases even leftist socialist trends in the form of trade unions and small syndicates have been able to join the struggle against dictators. But in none of these countries has the left been able to draw the support of the majority of the people.

Evidence shows that the ongoing popular uprisings are based on democratic and national aspirations, and deeply resemble the Islamic Revolution in their resistance and anti-authoritarian, anti-imperialist aspirations.

Overall, the nature of the popular uprisings in Middle Eastern and African countries is completely home grown. Those who link these uprisings to the West and the United States are proponents of a conspiracy theory, and they try to portray the dominant powers as the sole powers in the world, and that resistance against them is futile. However, dictator regimes have evidently reached their end, and this region is moving toward democratic regimes. Although this process could be associated with many losses and may even take many years, eventually it will reduce the influence of the dominant powers.