Let’s See the World as an Opportunity, Not a Threat

Mahmood Saroilghalam, well-known Iranian theoretical figure in diplomatic issues has answered questions about China, its economy, future and stance on Iran’s nuclear issue in an interview with Iranian Diplomacy.

China’s support for Iran against Western countries has become a hot topic in foreign diplomacy these days. Will China contest the likely sanctions imposed by West? Can European leaders, especially French diplomats that frequently visit Beijing these days ally China? To find the answer and more importantly, to find out if Chinese model of development -that has raised the country to power- is appropriate for Iran we must know China better. Mahmud Sari’olghalam PhD, university professor and well-known theoretical figure in diplomatic issues, has answered these questions in an interview with Iranian Diplomacy.

How do you define China’s foreign diplomacy?

First I should mention something to correct a media mistake. They name Deng Xiaoping as the architect of the modern China, but I think Chou En-lai, China’s PM during Mao Zedong rule was far more important.

His measures lay ground for political and economic developments. He believed China must be powerful and the country’s differences in international scene must be reduced from security level to political level. No country must consider China as a security threat. Political differences definitely exist between all countries.

Chou En-lai was the initiator of China’s developments that aimed to alter China-West ties and change West’s negative attitude towards China. Chinese leaders that succeeded Mao followed this course.

If we want to give a summary of China’s foreign policy in the new age, we must mention some points. First, reducing the level of differences from security to political. Second, taking advantage of economic capabilities of the international system. They regard the international system as an opportunity rather than a threat. Third, according to Deng Xiaoping China seeks a 50-year peace with the international system. They seek peaceful co-existence with all countries despite political differences. Fifth, improving ties with all countries. One of the countries China had always problem with was Australia. But today Australia exports gas worth of 1 billion dollars to China every year. Peaceful economic and political relations are established between the two countries and they move towards further economic co-operation. Chinese also intend to boost their ties with EU.

They have invested in construction structures of many African countries to access natural resources -which is one of their serious problems- in return. China gives a 6 billion dollar aid to underdeveloped and third-world countries annually.

China’s theoretical and strategic focus is attaining economic power and reaching the highest position, at least in Asia. Statistics show that they pursue this objective earnestly.

For next year’s Olympic Games they have made a 40 million dollar investment. The basis of their policy is extensive use of international capacities to transform China. Foreign policy of every country must profit its people. Every statement, measure or relation a country starts in international scene; every investment outside the country must profit its own people in some way. Foreign diplomacy is a continuation of domestic diplomacy. Internal priorities must be defined beforehand and based on them foreign policy priorities must be pursued. The Chinese are skillfully following the peaceful co-existence and extensive exploitation diplomacy.

So as you say, although possessing economic power as an instrument to gain power in global scene, Chinese don’t intend to become a supreme power and key player in international community?

There are prerequisite for becoming a global key player. A country needs both economic and military instruments to make moves in diplomacy. In other words, to become powerful, military and economic pillars are needed. Today Chinese don’t have long-term military capacity and their military strategy is based on deterrence.

They don’t look for military moves and they don’t have technological power in this field either. There’s just a small local industry and for the rest they’re significantly dependent on Russia. Recently they have been seeking for co-operation with EU to employ military technology. The United States has firmly opposed this co-operation but the French are negotiating with China.

About the other prerequisite of globalization, that is the economic power, China has one-third of Japan’s economic power and one-seventh of America’s economy. Their foreign trade was worth of 20 billion dollars in 1978 but this reached 851 billion dollars in 2005. China receives 50 billion dollars of foreign investment annually.

Chinese banks are among major banks of the world nowadays. With an annual economic growth of 8-9 percent the country has become a key player in economy. But still they form 4 of global economy and in comparison with the United States, Germany and Japan that totally control 55 percent of the global economy; they have a long way to influence the norms of international system.

A country is regarded powerful when it can establish norms. That’s the key characteristic of power. China is not still this type of country, whether in military field or economy. But they’re moving towards it and if they continue the current progress they will become such a country in 3 decades, that is, in 2030.

Technologically speaking, they have a long way to go; even to reach second-class European countries. China may be an important country in Asia and hold the continent’s consumption market but in production and capital goods market they have a long way to go.

So they think of increasing and maintaining power rather that displaying it?

Yes, and they haven’t reached the level of establishing norms in an international level. But they’re a very important country in Asia and it can be said that they determine the future of this continent. China is important because of its population, rate of economic growth and military budget. The largest military budget belongs to the United States with 450 billion dollars and China holds the second place with 60 billion dollars. Definitely China is an important country, but its sphere of influence is only in its own region.

Speaking more detailed, how do you see China’s foreign policy in the Middle East?

As I said before, foreign policy is a continuation of the domestic policy. Chinese have a problem of natural resources so they want a guaranteed route to supply their energy, especially in the next two decades. Of course their long-term strategy is to supply the major part of their need through atomic energy so that they don’t depend on other resources anymore. The need for natural resources and market is the element that shapes China’s foreign policy. The Middle East is important for China because of its energy supplies.

Nearly 14 percent of China’s oil is imported from Iran and 17 percent from Saudi Arabia. Extensive co-operations take place between China and some Persian Gulf Arab countries and OPEC to provide energy. But the Chinese are more interested in consumption markets. The United States’ 300 million-strong population and EU’s 400-million strong population equal a rosy consumption market. Entering American and European markets is a priority for every producer. So the Middle East is firstly important for its energy and then for its consumption market. But it doesn’t hold a high position compared with other markets.

Chinese enter regions where there are no political and strategic rivals. The Middle East is under strong influence of America. The country’s heavy presence in oil-rich countries of Persian Gulf and Iraq has made Chinese reluctant to enter the region and in order to avoid any friction with the United States. Therefore Central and Latin America, Africa and Central Asia are given higher priority compared with the Middle East.

So what’s your assessment on China-US relationship?

There are two complicated relationships in the international system: US-Russia relationship and US-China relationship. China needs America’s market, industry and technology and optimally utilizes the stable economic norms of the international system, therefore since 20 years ago they’ve decided not to have any political frictions with the United States. But they try to manage their political differences and so far they’ve done that with considerable adroitness.

Today, China is regarded as America’s serious rival in global economy. It has a considerable influence in the United States’ market and it’s been influential in US financial market. Even they attempted to purchase an American oil company with 5 billion dollar but the Congress stopped the process. China faces serious oppositions in the United States. Security organizations and the Congress are against China’s presence and its economic influence but Chinese are seeking to manage these problems.

Americans try to prevent China from reaching technological superiority and they try to block their access to natural resources. Overall behavior of China shows that Europe and America have never faced China’s serious opposition. I’ve heard from several influential international figures that they’ve never had major problems with China on Iran. There have been problems with Russia but not with China. China has always accompanied other countries since it is not interested to cause strategic clashes with America on Iran, Iraq or Palestine. That’s because economy and consumption markets are its priorities.

How do you see Chinese political psychology?

I think their positive point which existed even during the Communist era is their love for their country. Wherever in the world, they are really interested in their homeland. China has experienced many threats and humiliations in the past two centuries and the Revolution of China has brought about national unity. 

Today, they’re seeking enormous economic power. Their love for their country is the cause of their success. Generally the yellow race has perfect harmony and unity within itself. Chinese have a pyramidal mentality. Unlike we Iranians that enjoy criticizing each other and approval and co-operation is very difficult for us, Chinese co-operate with each other appropriately.

Fukuyama has a book named Trust in which he has conducted a sociological study of the history of creation of prosperity in the United States and Japan in the last three centuries. He has concluded that their developed economy is a result of cooperation and mutual trust. He mentions the same reason for Chinese.

History of China shows a good relationship between the nation and the state. This is of a high value for China. Most of the Chinese trust their government who in turn tends to serve the people.

We must also pay attention that existence of Japan in East Asia is the reason of profound developments in many East Asian countries. For example, Japan has been Malaysia’s development role model. China has adopted Japanese model of development: world’s second economic power with zero natural resources.

Another feature of Chinese culture which roots in Confucius’s teachings is that protest doesn’t mean destruction. They protest peacefully and reach an agreement quickly. Unlike Iranians who are separate islands and never tend to bridge the gaps.

Your question is worth attention since it is these psychological and social infrastructures that pave the ground for a nation’s progress. Chinese harmony has led them to development and brought great international respect for them. They’ve highly skillful diplomats and in total all the requirements to become powerful, although they face lots of challenges.

How is the distribution of power in China?

The major decision-maker is the Communist Party. After the revolution Beijing has preserved its centrality, but along with the long-time tradition of local autonomy under Communist Party’s supervision. Contrary to Soviet system, a positive feature of China’s political system is circulation of power.

 The longest term in the Communist regime of China is 5 years which is consistent with international norms. Democracy is not anticipated from China but rise of various individuals to power is a positive feature of this system. They have started their strategic cooperation with the private sector, unlike ideological countries that want to control everything from top.

Since 1987, China’s bank capital has become 200-fold and it has doubled since 2001. So the Communist Party is ready to share power with the private sector. There will be no national growth and wealth unless politics and economy cooperate. This is a positive feature of the Communist Party: it is ready to cooperate with Chinese partners that invest abroad, to become powerful.

China’s economy has totally overshadowed its politics. Nowadays we see traces of the country’s economy everywhere but we never see any signs of its politics.

Yes. That’s a strategic decision that dates back to 30 years ago. Sometimes I’m surprised that Iranian media give this country the “revolutionary” epithet. Mao died in 1975 and even in his era China was de-Maoified and revolutionariness was put aside. Chinese decided to follow the objective of economic power. A country that experiences economic growth must have a foreign diplomacy that paves the way for this cause.

The same case is true for Germany and Japan because their leaders sought for increase of national wealth, thus the increase of national power and international weight. In international system politics serves the increase of national wealth.

Politics doesn’t have any value per se. Its importance is when it can increase national wealth. The more it increases, the more countries can promote their culture and attain international respect and prestige. The Japanese citizens have a saving of 800 billion dollars in their bank accounts. That shows the credit of this nation and state. Of course quantity doesn’t speak of everything but it is a sign of quality.

 Culture can be promoted with the increase of national wealth and attaining economic power. Other countries get to know the language and culture of a country due to its power.

Is Chinese model applicable for Iran?

This was the model adopted by Malaysia in 1960s. Any country that wishes to prosper economically must define economy in the private sector. This model followed by Chinese is an international model. So it’s up to us to decide whether we want to become powerful, or what is the basis of power in our opinion. The basis of power in the current international system is economy. We must direct economic power towards private sector and use oil revenue apart from the country’s budget, just as Kuwait and Norway have done.

Another thing that needs to be made clear is our view towards the world. Unfortunately we still see the world as a threat rather than an opportunity. During the past 50 years the political thought in Iran has been based on opposition against the world, which roots in lack of self-confidence.

Self-confidents do not fear interaction. We must clearly define our approach regarding the international system. Do we enjoy opposition or we have to interact inevitably because of the future? That’s what Chinese have done.