New Hopes for the Disarmament Process

06 April 2011 | 03:46 Code : 10902 America

By Rahman Ghahremanpour, the head of the disarmament department at the Strategic Research Center

IRD: the most important event which took place in 1389 AH in regards to arms control, was the new START agreement between the US and Russia. The importance of this event more than anything else was in the continuation of bilateral disarmament and arms control. This was important because the START II treaty-which was signed before- was never implemented due to occurrences in the US and Russia. Therefore, there was the worry that if the START I treaty came to an end and no other treaty was there to replace it, it could lead to an increase in strategic nuclear arms on both sides.

From this point of view, the passage of the new START treaty in Russia’s Duma and in the US Senate is considered an important and influential development. The passage of this treaty will help the US and Russia reach some of their goals. For example, it is argued that the US and Russia will have greater cooperation on Iran’s nuclear case as a result of this treaty. Other results of this treaty are the omission of missile defense shields in Poland and the Czech Republic, and the scrapping of others in Europe, in a US compromise with Russia. These are obvious and first hand results of this treaty. Another issue that the US has raised is the cutting off of the production of nuclear fusion material, which could be among other outcomes of this treaty.

Even though we witnessed the continuation of missile tests in India and Pakistan, Britain’s cancelling its upgrading of its nuclear submarines is a great development, leading into a less militarized international atmosphere which will be followed by Russia and France in reconsidering their nuclear strategy.

Overall, we have to say that the year 1389 was a busy year for the US in terms of disarmament, due to Obama’s policies on the issue. Actually, in this year the United States distanced itself from the Bush administration ignoring of disarmament issues. Bush had implemented policies on disarmament that had destructive influences on arms control. However, we have to wait and see the outcomes of Obama’s efforts in the disarmament process, and his success in realizing arms control.

We witnessed a devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan during the last days of last year. This incident brought the issue of reactor safety to the center of attention in regards peaceful nuclear energy. Although Japan is one of the most advanced countries in nuclear technology, the recent earthquake and tsunami created more awareness in other countries regarding the safety of their nuclear reactors.

We can anticipate that the process we witnessed in terms of arms control and disarmament in 1389 will continue into the next year. Especially with the Obama administration further distancing itself from Bush policies, the atmosphere for working for disarmament will become better compared to the past. Since this year, the US has also put the subject of nuclear safety and nuclear terrorism on its agenda. Essentially, we have to say that if no unusual event occurs in regards to arms control and disarmament, this process will most likely face no negative issues and it will continue into 1390 AH.

On Iran’s nuclear dossier, the Tehran Declaration was an important event that led to no conclusions due to the inappropriate reaction of Western countries. Predicting Iran’s nuclear dossier in the coming year is not an easy task because of all the various variables influencing the issue. However, we can say that the 5+1 will be seeking an opportunity to increase pressure on Iran through the ratification of more resolutions. On the other hand, Iran has proposed to enter negotiations. Even though it is hard to anticipate, if Iran continues its policies, the 5+1 will also continue their dual path of negotiation and sanctions and it is very possible that one or two other sanction resolutions on Iran will be issued.

Iran has announced that the R&D department of the Fordu site will be developed in the year 1390. In addition, parts of P2 or IR2, or IR4 centrifuges, will be installed in the Natanz pilot facility, which is an important event in terms of nuclear activities. In addition, the related utilities for producing 20 % enriched nuclear fuel rods for Amirabad’s 5-megawatt research reactor will be built in 1390 as well. These are all important technical developments, and they can influence Iran’s nuclear dossier in terms of technicalities.