Roots of John Kerry’s Change of Position Regarding Iran
-The US Secretary of State’s change of position could be related to some developments with regard to the issue of Iran including the nuclear negotiations.
-The atmosphere of nuclear negotiations, contrary to what was predicted, is a good and constructive one. This could be due to the fact that both sides have been able to overcome some of the differences in order to reach a final and comprehensive agreement.
-If this good and constructive atmosphere continues, it could be hoped that both sides will take effective steps on the path towards reaching the comprehensive agreement. Then the path for later cooperation between Iran and the P5+1 countries, particularly the US, would be opened.
- Even if the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement in New York does not exist, it would be better for Iran and the US to cooperate with each other for example in Iraq to fight against ISIS in order to facilitate the achievement of a comprehensive agreement. This cooperation could bring both sides closer to each other to some extent and this closeness would increase the chance of reaching a final comprehensive agreement.
-Syria is the most important obstacle in the way of cooperation between Iran and the US. The position of the coalition with regard to the activities of this group in Syria is not clear. The organizers of this coalition have not yet determined whether the scope of their fight against ISIS will lead to their fight against the government of Syria or not.
-Among the US plans within the framework of the strategy of fighting against ISIS has been stated as strengthening the groups which oppose the Bashar Assad government. The strengthening of Bashar Assad’s opposition groups, the number of which has now reached 1500 based on the estimates of the intelligence services of the western countries, could, more than ever before, lead to the weakening of the position of the government of Bashar Assad. Therefore, this is one of the most important differences between Iran and the US for cooperation in the fight against ISIS which is, in fact, a serious difference.